16/07/2007 by leo.

After the heat and humidity of Hanoi, it is a relief to come down to Ho Chi Minh City, (formerly known as Saigon), where is may still be hot and humid, it is somewhat more comfortable to walk outside than in the capital. The city itself is a curious mixture, the centre pieces being curiously French architecture left over from colonial times – a red brick cathedral, the spacious post office and a very opulent opera house. If one move to the Chinese part of the city, then there are some magnificently decorated temples. Between the two, the typical tall narrow buildings of the locals, painted in their contrasting colours, some welcome green spaces, and everywhere the hooting of motor scooters flitting around the city

As Qatar have two points, while Japan and Vietnam, playing each other in Hanoi have four, they have choosen an attacking line up, starting in 4-3-3. The United Arab Emirates know they go home after this game, and have dropped all but three from the starting line up of the last game. The match is being played at the stadium known as Quan Khu 7, and translated into English as the Army Stadium. Like the others so far visited, it has an athletics track. Outside this are rows of brightly coloured concrete seats – about ten rows behind the goals, rising at least another four rows along the side. A modern stand sits along one side and provides the only protection from the elements. Most of the sparse crowd are either in this stand or in the first block beyond. Almost to a man, they are supporting the United Arab Emirates – after all, if Qatar do not win this match, then Vietnam (and for that matter Japan) will qualify regardless of the score in the other game. Every time the UAE got the ball, it was applauded, but this was nothing to the crescendo that greeted the news that Vietnam were ahead in their match, rising in intensity as more people confirmed the news. No more than a whimper signalled the Japanese equaliser four minutes later.

The balance of the early play was just in Qatar, but were having little joy in front of the goal, and the UAE started to create a few more chances and get the local crowd excited, (the news that Vietnam were now losing having quietened them a bit), but five minutes from half time, it all went wrong as Quintana was fouled just inside the box. The referee tried to be helpful, ruling the first score from the resulting penalty as illegal (assumedly for an infringement), but Quintana is not an easily rattled played, and put his second attempt into the roof of the net. Two minutes later, the UAE goalkeeper somehow contrived to mess up a clearance and get caught in a tangle of feet with a Qatar player. The referee decided to give an indirect free kick inches inside the box. Quintana’s powerful shot was blocked by the wall this time, while Yahya headed the resultant corner just wide. At half time, Qatar lead 1-0, and with Japan also ahead, it is not looking good for Vietnam.

The second half was very much in the same vein as the first, Qatar having the play but not looking that likely to get a second goal, while Vietnamese hopes took another knock thanks to Shunsuke Nakamura adding Japan’s third goal. Ten minutes there was a chance for UAE when Jumaa crossed for Nawaf Mubarak, but the number nine was a foot away from making contact., and then on 58 minutes another cross from the right, this time from Ahmed Mohamed AL Mahri was met by the head of Saeed Alkas and this time UAE were level. The crowd exploded back into life, and there were regular chants of U-A-E, but the team did not respond in kind, as it was Qatar that were woken up by the goal. Meanwhile, Japan’s position in the ascendancy in Hanoi was being confirmed, as the raised the score to 4-1

It took until 68 minutes into the game before the first substitution, Qatar bringing on Magid Hassan as an alternative attacked to Ali Yahya, but keeping the same 4-3-3 formation. A defensive change followed, Mesaad Al Hammad coming on for Mustafa Abdulla, but again without a change in the formation. The Qatar play was try to and move the ball quickly, using mainly the inside left channel, and then trying to get the ball to Quintana. UAE’s tactics were to try and block the ball before it reached the Uruguayan and then boot it upfield as quick as possible. With fourteen minutes to play, UAE made their first change - taking off the goalscorer Alkas and bringing on Faisal Khalil, another striker. Qatar’s final change, bringing on Adel Mohamed for Wesam meant an extra forward and a final 12 minutes of bombarding the goal in 4-2-4 formation. UAE then brought on Mohamed Al Shehhi for Nawaf Mubarek, still keeping their shape. Qatar continued to press, but the UAE were making a good effort in keeping the ball from Quintana. This was an effective tactic, for despite giving putting Magid in with a clear chance on 84 minutes, the forward missed the target. As soon as a white shirted player received the ball, the ground would scream their delight, especially if the player could run with the ball and maybe draw a foul. For once time wasted by an injury was cheered not jeered. The 90 minutes were passed with 18 being treated, it took more than another minute to bring on 20 as the final sub. Qatar pushed down one wing and then the other, but UAE defenders were blocking every cross, while the runs of 13 brought the fouls, and brought the crowd to their feet. Four minutes over – Mater takes a very long run and powers a low shot through the wall. Qatar goalkeeper Saqr saves, but the ball bounces up. Faisil Khalil is first on hand, and heads into the empty net. The game ends seconds later with Vietnam, beaten 4-1 in Hanoi reaching the quarter finals.

Outside the gates to the stadium, the crowd spent a long time chanting for their own team and for UAE. Bruno Metsu gave just the briefest of press conferences (it mattered little, you could hardly hear what was said) before boarding the bus amid his cheering support. Metsu will not be such a hero when he returns to the Emirates as he now is in Vietnam. Perhaps he should head east for his next job. I feel Qatar failed because they are too reliant on a single player, and the other forwards do not feel up to the purpose of taking on the responsibility

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16/07/2007 by leo.

It may be dangerous to publish a page including predictions less than half an hour before the game kicks off, but here’s to living dangerously

When the qualification draw for the Asian Cup was released. I wrote down a list of the twelve teams I expected to qualify. I cannot remember now whether or not I got all 12 correct, but I do know that I got at least 11. Indeed, there were only two questions in my mind when making my list – would Bahrain or Kuwait join Australia from Group D, and whether it would be Jordan or Oman to qualify in Group C?

Both Jordan and Kuwait played in the last finals in China. The only other team in the 16 for the 2004 tournament, not to also play in 2007 was Turkmenistan – who did not even enter the qualification stage. The three new teams in contention are two of the hosts, Vietnam and Malaysia, plus new boys Australia. In the same way, China 2004 was the first time 16 teams played in the finals, and 11 of the 12 teams from the tournament played in Lebanon four years earlier were back. Only Lebanon themselves missed out.

This is the way of Asian football, and has been for all the time I have been following sport in the region. There is an established order in the game and this is neither easily upset or changed. It is not the way of all the world. In Africa, home advantage is a far more significant factor, while in Europe, it is not unknown for a team to be built up and spend a few years in the limelight, and then to fade back towards insignificance.

So we entered the tournament with certain expectations. In many minds, the four group winners were known in advance, and would all move on to the semi-finals. These four teams were Australia, Japan, Iran and South Korea. The second places were never supposed to be so clear, with the other two teams in the group, (with the exception of the hosts) in each group expected to fight a close contest. For the hosts, the question was whether any of them at all, even with the addition of home advantage could even challenge for qualification.

The first two rounds of matches show a marked difference to expectations. In particular there were much stronger performances from the home sides than anyone could have expected (except Malaysia – more of them later). In addition to this, we have seen two of the ‘big four’ failing to do the business. Although still in competition, both these teams are at seriously at risk of not reaching the knock out stages.

In group A, Thailand set the standard in the opening game, when they picked up a 1-1 draw with Iraq. The following day, Oman came within a minute of defeating Australia. The second round really opened up the competition though, as both Thailand and Iraq won their matches. The Thais beating Oman, while Iraq surprised Australia by demonstrating the commitment needing to succeed at this level. After only one week, Graham Arnold’s whinging excuses as to why Australia’s failures are the vault of everyone but himself are already becoming legendary in these parts.

But it is not all over, Thailand and Iraq have four points, Oman and Australia only one, but this could all change in the final round. If two teams should end up level on points, then the spoils go to the team with the best head to head record. This means that if only one of Australia and Oman win their last game, they will draw level with their opponents on points, and the win they have just achieved will give them the better head to head result. But if both Oman and Australia are to win in the games ahead, then all four teams in the group end on four points. In this case, it is the overall group goal difference that counts, meaning that a three goal win is required to ensure qualification.

In Group B, Vietnam started by trumping the achievements of their great rivals, by winning their first game against UAE. Japan were slow starters being held by Qatar, but then came good in beating the UAE team 3-1. While the strengths of the Japanese were clear in this game, so were their weaknesses, and they lost their way when a bigger margin should have been possible. While the UAE have now been knocked out, Qatar scored a second draw in the match against Vietnam – forcing the issue in the second half when the home side could not raise the game, even with 40,000 home supporters behind them.

So with Vietnam and Japan level on four points, and each having won a game by a two goal margins, they are strongly placed to qualify as they play each other. But this leaves Qatar in an interesting position in the other game – if they can beat the UAE by three goals, then they know they will overtake at least one of the teams from the other group. Indeed if either Japan or Vietnam win, then any win puts Qatar through – but should Qatar fail, then the other result becomes unimportant as both teams are already qualified.

While the host sides have exceeded expectation in Groups A and B – in group C they have made up for this. Malaysia being outmanoeuvred and overpowered in both their opening games. Both China and Uzbekistan knocking five goals past them. The Iranians beat Uzbekistan in their first game, and then recovered strongly from 2-0 down to take a point off China and leave the Chinese holding on for this at the end. A single point will confirm Iranian qualification, and it almost inconceivable they will not go beyond that. China hold the upper hand in the other game, the point gained against Iran means they only need a draw to go through – but Uzbekistan have in Shatskikh a player with the potential to be tournaments top scorer, and if on form, he can take his team a long way.

The Indonesians also opened their campaign with a further success for the hosts, defeating Bahrain, while South Korea drew 1-1 with Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia have since built up the strength and reputation by outlasting their hosts in the second game and rising to four points, but South Korea did not carry on in the same vein. They enjoyed a great deal of possession against Bahrain, but time and time again they failed to turn this into goals, finally losing out when Bahrain scored. So both Bahrain and Indonesia have three points going into the last game, Saudi Arabia are ahead with four, while South Korea are hanging in with just the one.

This leaves the group in a most complex state, except for Saudi Arabia – they know that they pick up at least a draw against Bahrain, they must go through to the quarter-finals, and a victory must leave them top of the pile. Both Bahrain and Indonesia also know that winning their last game is enough to push them into the next round – they also both know that a draw may well be enough. For Bahrain, a fourth point would be enough if South Korea were to win their last game, for Indonesia it is enough if Bahrain do not win. South Korea need to win their last game, and then hope the other result is to their liking. South Korea’s hopes depend on Saudi Arabia also winning their game.

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